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Showing posts with label people that are smarter than me. Show all posts
Showing posts with label people that are smarter than me. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Congratulations to Nick G.

he has solved the conundrum of the century.

So, I was looking at this and I came to two primary conclusions off the bat:

1: It's not Kim. If you go over the stills, the name is much longer than Kim. It's too wide for the 3-letter surname, so you can eliminate him.

2: Boone Logan is definitely not right handed, so he's out.

But then I looked even more closely and I figured out the flaw in this whole thing and, quite possibly, the answer to our question:

3: We don't know that this is a strikeout.

I went over the clip and we never really see that the ball goes into the mitt, or have any confirmation of a strikeout. We can't assume strikeout. However, we can say with reasonable certainty that this game is being played in Landshark/whatever and that a Marlin is at the plate.

As you said, the best guess at the player at the mound is Darren O'Day. He pitched 4 games as a Met, 2 @Marlins.

And then I looked at the game log for April 10th and I had my eureka moment...

On April 10th, O'Day came into a 4-4 game and faced two batters: Emilio Bonifacio (switch) and Jorge Cantu (right). He walked Bonifacio, and then gave up a walk-off RBI single to Cantu. Not only is that highlight worthy, but in the very next shot Cantu is being approached by teammates looking to celebrate something big, like a walk-off win.

What we can conclude is that the pitch was on the outside corner, about belt high. So I pulled up the brooksbaseball pitch FX data for that AB in question and, well, I think we have our answer:

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?s_type=3&sp_type=1&batterX=85&month=04&day=10&game=gid_2009_04_10_nynmlb_flomlb_1/&year=2009&pitchSel=503285&prevGame=gid_2009_04_10_nynmlb_flomlb_1/

Second pitch, in-play run, belt high, outside corner of the zone (for an RHB).

I think we have our answer. That highlight is a pitch FROM Darren O'Day to Jorge Cantu, which he pulled into left field for a walk-off single.

Great work by Nick. It appears we finally have an answer to the "Marlins Will Soar" question. With a little faith and love, we truly soared today.